{"id":1673,"date":"2019-12-21T12:02:21","date_gmt":"2019-12-21T12:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/?p=1673"},"modified":"2022-03-11T17:58:44","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T17:58:44","slug":"demografia-i-inventari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/demografia-i-inventari\/","title":{"rendered":"Demografia i inventari"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/th>\nPopulation<\/th>\nBirths per 1,000<\/th>\nBirths Between Benchmarks<\/th>\nNumber Ever Born<\/th>\nPercent of Those Ever Born<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
50,000 B.C.E.<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8000 B.C.E.<\/td>\n5,000,000<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n1,137,789,769<\/td>\n1,137,789,769<\/td>\n0.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 C.E.<\/td>\n300,000,000<\/td>\n80<\/td>\n46,025,332,354<\/td>\n47,163,122,125<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1200<\/td>\n450,000,000<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n26,591,343,000<\/td>\n73,754,465,125<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1650<\/td>\n500,000,000<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n12,782,002,453<\/td>\n86,536,467,578<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1750<\/td>\n795,000,000<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n3,171,931,513<\/td>\n89,708,399,091<\/td>\n0.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1850<\/td>\n1,265,000,000<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n4,046,240,009<\/td>\n93,754,639,100<\/td>\n1.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1900<\/td>\n1,656,000,000<\/td>\n40<\/td>\n2,900,237,856<\/td>\n96,654,876,956<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1950<\/td>\n2,516,000,000<\/td>\n31-38<\/td>\n3,390,198,215<\/td>\n100,045,075,171<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995<\/td>\n5,760,000,000<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n5,427,305,000<\/td>\n105,472,380,171<\/td>\n5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011<\/td>\n6,987,000,000<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n2,130,327,622<\/td>\n107,602,707,793<\/td>\n6.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2017<\/strong><\/td>\n7,536,000,000<\/strong><\/td>\n19<\/strong><\/td>\n867,982,322<\/strong><\/td>\n108,470,690,115<\/strong><\/td>\n6.9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2030<\/td>\n8,563,000,000<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n1,806,595,106<\/td>\n110,277,285,221<\/td>\n7.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2050<\/td>\n9,846,000,000<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n2,833,529,982<\/td>\n113,110,815,203<\/td>\n8.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

( font : PRB<\/a> )<\/p>\n

Per simular quantes vides hi ha hagut, partir\u00e9 de la poblaci\u00f3 total d’un per\u00edode, \u00e9s a dir tots els naixements que hi ha hagut. Despr\u00e9s amb l’ajuda d’aquesta taula, veiem la poblaci\u00f3 mitjana i podem ajustar una taxa de naixement i morts.
\nAleshores, partir de la poblaci\u00f3 inicial puc tenir la poblaci\u00f3 actual a cada moment i els naixements acumulats.<\/p>\n

World Population<\/a>: cronologia amb la poblaci\u00f3 total, fites rellevants en la hist\u00f2ria de l’alimentaci\u00f3 o la salut i mapa din\u00e0mic que s’actualitza amb l’increment de poblaci\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\n

F\u00d3RMULES<\/p>\n

Amb una taxa neta de creixement anual de r, tenim P(2)=P(1)*(1+r), P(n)=P(1)*(1+r)(t-1)<\/sup>. Surten uns valors baixos els primers segles i a partir del 1700 comencen a arribar als 5-12 per mil. Aix\u00f2 vol dir que fins aleshores la mortaldat gaireb\u00e9 igualava la natalitat. ( a la inversa, si tenim els valors de la poblaci\u00f3, la taxa de creixement \u00e9s: r=[P(t)\/P(0)]^(1\/t-1) – 1<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Els naixements acumulats serien: N(1)=P(1)n amb n la taxa de naixement, (que \u00e9s n=r+m, si tenim creixement i mortalitat) N(2)=P(2)n=(P1)*(1+r), N(t)=nP(t)=nP(1)*(1+r)(t-1).<\/sup>I la suma: N(1)+N(2)+…N(t)= nP(1)*(1+ (1+r) + (1+r)2<\/sup> + (1+r)3<\/sup> + … (1+r)(t-1)<\/sup>)\u00a0 [ S-1=(1+r) + (1+r)2<\/sup> + (1+r)3<\/sup> + … (1+r)(t-1) <\/sup>= (1+r)[S-(1+r)(t-1)<\/sup>\u00a0 ]\u00a0\u00a0 ,\u00a0\u00a0 (1+r)(t-1)<\/sup> – 1 = Sr, S =( (1+r)(t-1)<\/sup> – 1 )\/r ]<\/p>\n

cal posar r dividit per 1000, r’<\/p>\n

N(t)=nP(1) [ (1+r)(t-1)<\/sup> – 1 )\/r ] = (r+m)P(1)[(1+r)(t-1)<\/sup> – 1 )\/r]<\/p>\n

\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Classical_demography<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_states_by_population_in_1_CE<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Demographic_history<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Demographics_of_the_world<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_largest_cities_throughout_history<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Year Population Births per 1,000 Births Between Benchmarks Number Ever Born Percent of Those Ever Born 50,000 B.C.E. 2 \u2013 \u2013 \u2013 \u2013 8000 B.C.E. 5,000,000 80 1,137,789,769 1,137,789,769 0.4 1 C.E. 300,000,000 80 46,025,332,354 47,163,122,125 0.6 1200 450,000,000 60 26,591,343,000 73,754,465,125 0.6 1650 500,000,000 60 12,782,002,453 86,536,467,578 0.6 1750 795,000,000 50 3,171,931,513 89,708,399,091 0.9 … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Demografia i inventari”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[133],"tags":[253,263],"anotacio":[],"civilitzacio":[],"spec":[],"aspecies":[],"Tema poesia":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1673"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1673\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"anotacio","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/anotacio?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"civilitzacio","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/civilitzacio?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"spec","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/spec?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"aspecies","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/aspecies?post=1673"},{"taxonomy":"Tema poesia","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/meumon.synology.me\/museu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/Tema poesia?post=1673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}